圆K

圆圈K能提供更好的预测

全球连锁便利店通过互联计划推动准确的全球预测。

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Circle K operates a network of over 12,000 convenience stations around the world. Because they were managed using a conglomeration of spreadsheets and ERP solutions, demand and supply forecasting were misaligned and sometimes inaccurate. “People were doing forecasting in silos,” recalls Magnus Tagtstrom, Senior Director of Supply Chain Optimization. With Anaplan, Circle K now has greater collaboration and an accurate, aligned 18-month rolling forecast.

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Circle K在全球运营着超过12000个便利店网络。由于它们是使用电子表格和ERP解决方案进行管理的,因此需求和供应预测是不一致的,有时甚至是不准确的。亚搏彩票app官方网站供应链优化高级总监Magnus Tagtstrom回忆道:“人们都在各自为营地做预测。有了Anaplan, Circle K现在有了更大的合作,以及准确、一致的18个月滚动预测。


我看到的一个明显的好处是预测的准确性——这帮助我们在所有的站点都有正确的库存水平。

100%

对当前库存的可见性

18个月

滚动需求和供应预测


Before Anaplan, Circle K managed its supply and demand planning in a disjointed combination of spreadsheets and enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. This led to inaccurate forecasting, an unstructured approach to information gathering, and conflicting demand forecasts.

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“One of my objectives has been to try to connect the dots in the supply chain,” recalls Magnus Tagtstrom, Senior Director of Supply Chain Optimization. “I think we had good solutions, but people were doing forecasting in silos, so I wanted to connect that planning process end to end.”

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Tagtstrom and his team built a connected approach to demand and supply planning with Anaplan for Supply Chain. Implemented together with Anaplan partner Executit (now part of Anaplan Gold Partner Vuealta), the solution enables the team to accurately predict supply and demand down to the individual-station level across Europe. Using intuitive forecasting and scenario-based planning, the planning teams at Circle K now have a dynamic capacity forecast per product and station so they know exactly where and when to send fuel.

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The key result is an accurate and dynamic 18-month rolling forecast of current and future stock levels for its European locations. Tagtstrom says, “One of the clear benefits that I see is the forecast accuracy—this has helped us have the right stock level throughout all our sites. That’s money that we have as a buffer in the supply chain now.”

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With an accurate view of capacity needs, Circle K can save money by reducing inventory and using resources more efficiently. “We have full visibility of our current inventory levels, as well as forward-looking inventory levels,” Tagtstrom explains. “With Anaplan, we know how much we will sell and when we can distribute it to sites. This has resulted in driving down both distribution costs and working capital.”

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Another benefit is increased sales, because an accurate forecast means Circle K has fewer stock-outs. “If there is ever a time when our store has no fuel, the customer might not shop with us the next time,” Tagtstrom explains. “So it’s very important to us to anticipate demand.” Circle K also realizes intangible benefits: confidence (because everyone is working from the same plan and data), less stress, more collaboration, and the ability to make better-informed decisions.

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Circle K chose the Anaplan platform for its ability to get up and running quickly with an iterative development process. Other important factors were the platform’s scalability and intuitiveness, which led to high end-user acceptance. The road ahead includes broader usage, more data sources (such as weather data), machine learning integration, and partner views.

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在ananplan之前,Circle K通过电子表格和企业资源计划(ERP)系统的脱节组合来管理其供应和需求计划。这导致了不准确的预测,非结构化的信息收集方法,以及相互矛盾的需求预测。

“我的目标之一是试图连接供应链中的点,”供应链优化高级总监Magnus Tagtstrom回忆道。“我认为我们有很好的解决方案,但人们都在各亚搏彩票app官方网站自做预测,所以我想把规划过程端到端连接起来。”

Tagtstrom和他的团队与Anaplan for supply Chain建立了一个连接的需求和供应计划方法。该解决方案与Anaplan合作伙伴Executit(现在是Anaplan黄金合作伙伴Vuealta的一部分)一起实施,使团队能够准确预测整个欧洲的供应和需求,精确到单个站的水平。通过直观的预测和基于场景的规划,Circle K的规划团队现在拥有每个产品和站点的动态容量预测,因此他们确切地知道何时何地发送燃料。

关键结果是对其欧洲地区当前和未来库存水平进行准确和动态的18个月滚动预测。Tagtstrom说:“我看到的一个明显的好处是预测的准确性——这帮助我们在所有的站点都有正确的库存水平。这是我们现在在供应链中作为缓冲的资金。”

通过准确地了解产能需求,Circle K可以通过减少库存和更有效地使用资源来节省资金。Tagtstrom解释道:“我们对当前的库存水平以及未来的库存水平都有充分的了解。”“有了anplan,我们知道我们会卖多少,以及什么时候可以把它分发到各个网站。这降低了分销成本和营运资本。”

另一个好处是销量增加,因为准确的预测意味着K圈的缺货情况更少。塔格斯特罗姆解释说:“如果我们的商店没有燃料了,下次顾客可能就不会来我们这里购物了。”“所以对我们来说,预测需求非常重要。”Circle K还实现了无形的好处:信心(因为每个人都在按照相同的计划和数据工作)、更少的压力、更多的合作以及做出更明智决策的能力。

Circle K选择了Anaplan平台,因为它能够通过迭代开发过程快速启动和运行。其他重要因素是平台的可伸缩性和直观性,这导致了较高的终端用户接受度。未来的道路包括更广泛的使用、更多的数据源(如天气数据)、机器学习集成和合作伙伴视图。

I’m Magnus Tagtstrom, and I lead supply chain optimisation in Circle K. We have four to five products and around 2,500 sites. One of my objectives has been to try to connect the dots in the supply chain. I think we had good solutions, but people were doing forecasting in silos, so I wanted to connect that planning end to end. I looked into other point-specific solutions—the requirements from my side was that we need something flexible and we need something quick. Then I came across Anaplan, which for me is like a … I don’t know, I think people use the words “Excel on steroids.”

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The approach that we’ve taken to the entire implementation is: I would like a solution that we can maintain in-house. We’ve trained model builders in my team to develop this in the future. But we were not used to Anaplan, and we were not used to quick development—and we were not really used to what you could do with it. So therefore we chose Executit, which is a local partner here in the Nordics. They’re quick in the development, and they can challenge me. So the solution that we built is replicating a lot of Excel’s, replicating a lot of ERP functionalities. But the nice thing is that we created a connector to the ERP systems, so we get daily updates on volumes and daily updates on sales across the entire field supply chain automatically integrated to the model.

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Biodiesel is a big thing in the Nordics. We would like to sell as much as we can, but we have a shortage of it, so we need to allocate it to where our customers need it the most. So taking the Anaplan solution that we have now, it actually automatically had an impact; e.g., what products do we need to supply into our terminals? So I think, for me, that was the kind of, “Okay, when you put the plans in the same place, when you put the known things and when you do allocations, it automatically has an impact on the people doing the shipping plans.”

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Some of the clear benefits that I see is the forecast accuracy—being specific in forecasting and then also having the BU inputs to plans into that—I think that will help us to have the right stock level throughout all our sites. That’s money that we have as a buffer in the supply chain now.

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So when let’s say we buy a product that we got from the Anaplan solution, we have full visibility of our inventory levels and the inventory levels, as well as forward-looking inventory levels, because we know how much we will sell from our demand plans and we know when we can distribute it to sites. This makes us much more specific in being able to drive down both distribution costs and working capital. So what we utilized is taking analytics, in our case power BI on top of Anaplan, to be able to create a much better report to get the insights. With Anaplan, I think we have taken this low-tech industry into something more high tech, and we’re ready for the future.

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We spent roughly 90 percent of our time just going through the process. Taking the information from the business partners, turning the handle, going through the process, validating the information at the end, just to make sure it made sense-and then only probably 10 percent of the time going through and really challenging what was coming out of the models, and requiring evidence from our business partners for where the peaks and troughs were.

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We didn’t think we were serving our internal customers or our external customers. Getting something in right away, as quickly as we could, was probably the big thing. It had to be easy to implement, easy to use, and everybody from a super-user to an executive, who’s just going to be looking at a dashboard, would find it very, very easy.

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The Anaplan platform is up there with probably the fastest speed to market that I’ve seen. I’ve done two different technologies that were more process-based-workflow management, things like that-which all took a significant amount of time, were significantly more expensive, and were altogether a lot more difficult. What we want is for our own team to be super users, and we don’t want to have to rely on somebody else to do the work for us.

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We’ve been using Bedford Consulting to help us with that. The key thing-what we wanted was to make sure that when our time with Bedford Consulting was done, we’d be able to fully operate the tool on our own and have only very limited interaction afterwards. Literally, the first day of getting people into it, they’re already able to see all the benefits that they’re going to get from it.

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Not just the stuff that we’re telling them they’re going to get, but as they’re building stuff, as they’re doing the e-learnings and as they’re working through it, they can go, “Oh, I’ve never been able to do this in spreadsheets, and now I can do this in Anaplan.” In a planning role, it’s difficult to make things sexy, but I think Anaplan does that. And it’s a cure for all the issues that you get with spreadsheets: manual errors, reporting issues, all that kind of stuff.

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I think the great thing about what Anaplan brings in, in its nimbleness and its adaptability, is that you can do whatever you want, whenever you want—today, right now, push it through instantly—to give you real-time information to make real-time decisions.

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我是Magnus Tagtstrom,我在Circle k负责供应链优化。我们有四到五种产品和大约2500个站点。我的目标之一是试图将供应链中的点连接起来。我认为我们有很好的解决方案,但人们都在各亚搏彩票app官方网站自为营地做预测,所以我想把这些计划从头到尾地联系起来。我研究了其他特定点的解决方案——我这边的要求是,我们需要一些灵活的、快亚搏彩票app官方网站速的东西。然后我遇到了Anaplan,对我来说,它就像,我不知道,我想人们会用“Excel的兴奋剂”这个词。

我们对整个实现采取的方法是:我想要一个我们可以在内部维护的解决方案。我们已经在我的团队中培训了模型构建者,以在未来开发它。但是我们不习惯Anaplan,我们不习惯快速开发——我们也不习惯用它做什么。所以我们选择了Executit,它是我们在北欧的合作伙伴。他们发展很快,他们可以挑战我。所以我们的解决方案复制了很多Excel的,复制了很多ERP的功能。但好的一点是,我们创建了一个连接到ERP系统的连接器,这样我们就可以在自动集成到模型的整个领域供应链上获得每日的销量更新和每日的销售更新。

生物柴油在北欧很受欢迎。我们希望尽可能多地销售,但我们的产品短缺,所以我们需要把产品分配到客户最需要的地方。所以就拿我们现在的阿纳plan方案来说,它实际上自动产生了影响;例如,我们需要向我们的终端供应什么产品?所以我认为,对我来说,这是一种,“好吧,当你把计划放在同一个地方,当你把已知的东西放在一起,当你进行分配时,它会自动对制定运输计划的人产生影响。”

我所看到的一些明显的好处是预测的准确性——预测的具体程度,以及BU对计划的输入——我认为这将帮助我们在所有站点拥有正确的库存水平。这是我们现在在供应链中作为缓冲的资金。

所以当我们从Anaplan解决方案中购买产品时,我们对库存水平和库存水平有充分的可见性,以及前瞻性库存水平,因为我们知道我们将从我们的需求计划中销售多少,我们知道我们何时可以将其分发到站点。这使我们能够更具体地降低分销成本和营运资金。因此,我们利用的是分析,在我们的案例中,在Anaplan之上的BI,能够创建一个更好的报告,以获得见解。有了anplan,我想我们已经把这个低技术含量的行业变成了高科技含量更高的行业,我们已经为未来做好了准备。

我们花了大约90%的时间来处理这个过程。从业务合作伙伴那里获取信息,转动手柄,经历整个过程,在最后验证信息,只是为了确保它有意义——然后可能只有10%的时间经过并真正质疑模型的结果,并要求我们的业务合作伙伴提供峰值和低谷的证据。

我们不认为我们是在服务内部客户或外部客户。最重要的是,我们要尽快把东西送进去。它必须易于实现,易于使用,每个人,从超级用户到高管,只要看到一个仪表盘,就会发现它非常非常简单。

Anaplan平台的上市速度可能是我见过的最快的。我做过两种不同的技术,它们更基于流程——工作流管理,类似的东西——它们都花费了大量的时间,明显更昂贵,总的来说也更困难。我们想要的是让我们自己的团队成为超级用户,我们不想依赖其他人为我们做工作。

我们一直在找贝德福德咨询公司帮忙。我们想要的关键是,当我们与贝德福德咨询公司的合作结束后,我们能够完全独立地操作这个工具,之后只有非常有限的互动。从字面上说,让人们进入它的第一天,他们就已经能够看到他们将从中获得的所有好处。

不仅仅是我们告诉他们他们要得到的东西,而是当他们在做东西的时候,当他们在做电子学习的时候,当他们在完成它的时候,他们可以说,“哦,我从来没有在电子表格中做过这个,现在我可以在Anaplan中做这个。”作为一个规划角色,很难让事情变得性感,但我认为Anaplan做到了。它可以解决电子表格的所有问题:手动错误,报告问题,诸如此类的问题。

我认为Anaplan带来的伟大之处在于它的灵活性和适应性,你可以在任何时候做任何你想做的事情——今天,现在,立即推动它——给你实时的信息来做出实时的决定。

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